Eta has become a tropical storm again. As of 1 PM EST maximum sustained winds were 60 mph with a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. Movement was northeast at 17 mph.
A trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will keep Eta on a northeast trajectory through tomorrow morning. However, a turn to the north and then northwest is expected after.
Right now it is not clear exactly when and where the aforementioned northwest turn will take place. Therefore, it is not known if Eta will make landfall in south Florida or the Florida Keys. However, if landfall does occur, it will likely be sometime Monday.
Eta has been strengthening faster than anticipated despite strong southwesterly shear. Considering this, and the fact that the SHIPS intensity guidance is predicting shear to drop off substantially in about 36 to 48 hours, additional strengthening is likely.
In fact, it is possible Eta could becoming a minimal hurricane again at some point within the next 3 or 4 days. At the very least, Eta will likely be a strong tropical storm as it tracks near/makes landfall in south Florida and/or the Florida Keys.
By Monday/Tuesday Eta will move into the eastern/southeastern Gulf of Mexico. From here things become uncertain, particularly with regard to track. Most of the model guidance is predicting that steering currents to weaken, allowing for Eta to meander around the eastern Gulf.
However, by about Thursday/Friday some model guidance, such as the GFS, predict a front will cause Eta to turn back to the northeast, or even east, toward Florida. Conversely, some model guidance, such as the ECMWF, bring Eta north toward southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
It is worth noting that both the GFS and ECMWF weaken Eta over the eastern Gulf.
Regardless of landfall, Eta will bring a storm surge, wind impact, heavy rain, and the potential for severe weather (tornadoes/water spouts in outer bands) to south Florida and the Florida Keys starting tomorrow. Timing/placement will be dependent on the exact strength and track of Eta.
It is too early to know if/how Eta will impact the northern/eastern Gulf Coast next week. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Eta.
