It is becoming increasingly likely that a significant, widespread severe weather event will unfold across the South/Southeast Wednesday into Thursday.
A storm system is going to track out of the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley Wednesday. Much of the South/Southeast will be located in the warm sector, where ample instability and wind shear is expected.
The Storm Prediction Center has defined a slight (level 2 out of 5) and enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather Wednesday. It would not be surprising to see an upgrade to a moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk for a portion of the enhanced risk area at some point.
It should be noted that there is also a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather.
All hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) are possible. High resolution guidance is advertising elevated significant tornado parameter (STP) values Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Generally an STP value greater than 1 indicates a threat for strong tornadoes. This suggests that a few strong/violent tornadoes will be possible.
As of now it appears the greatest risk for severe weather will be across far southeast Missouri, east Arkansas, west/southwest Tennessee, northeast Louisiana, and much of Mississippi and Alabama Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
The threat will shift east, into north Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas Thursday, where the Storm Prediction Center has defined a 15 percent (slight) risk area.
If you live in the risk area, now would be a good time to review your severe weather plan and make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings.
