Another severe weather outbreak is likely to unfold across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast tomorrow.
The Storm Prediction Center has defined a moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk for severe weather for central and north Alabama and Mississippi and much of west and central Tennessee. An enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather has also been defined.
The parameters expected to be in place tomorrow, such as high low-level wind shear and CAPE (instability) values, are supportive of a significant severe weather threat.
There will be potential for strong/violent, long-track tornadoes. This is reflected by the latest projected significant tornado parameter (STP) from the NAM 3km. Any value greater than 1 indicates potential for significant tornadoes.
Because of the potential for strong/violent, long-track tornadoes, the Storm Prediction Center is considering an upgrade to a high (level 5 out of 5) risk for severe weather. Damaging winds and large hail will also be threats.
While it is expected that the environment will be favorable for supercells, there is still some uncertainty with respect to how convection will evolve tomorrow.
The greatest risk for severe weather will be across north/central Mississippi and Alabama into Tennessee tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. If you live in any of these areas, now is the time to prepare and be sure to have a way to receive watches and warnings tomorrow.
Some risk for severe weather will exist across east Texas, much of Louisiana, south Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) and slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather across these areas. However, convective (thunderstorm) coverage is uncertain.
