Tropical development remains a possibility in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico late this week through next week.
The National Hurricane Center continues to highlight the southwest Caribbean for a low chance (10 percent) of tropical development. A broad area of low pressure is still expected to form within the next day or two, but at this time it looks unlikely to develop.
However, it has become clear that the real spot to watch will be western Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche next week.
Model guidance, including the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC, are in fairly good agreement on there being some sort of system in the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week. There is support from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles as well.
If we do get a system in the Caribbean or western Gulf/Bay of Campeche next week, it is far to early to know how strong it might become or where it might track.
At this time this is still nothing to be too concerned about. Just remain aware of the potential and continue to watch for updates.
