The National Hurricane Center has dropped the area of interest in the southwest Caribbean from the tropical weather outlook. This is not surprising as it had become evident that development was unlikely.
Not much has changed with the potential for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche next week.
Model guidance continues to advertise a system in the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week. However, it is still unclear if a tropical cyclone will form or not.
If a tropical cyclone were to form in the Bay of Campeche next week, it is far too early to know where it might track or how strong it might become. For this reason the message remains the same: this is nothing to be worried over yet, just beware of the potential.
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