We are finally starting to get some clarity on possible tropical development in the western Gulf/Bay of Campeche next week.
At this point, it is likely that a broad low/disturbance is going to develop in the Bay of Campeche by early to mid next week. Model guidance has been consistent with this much for the past several days. Where they have differed is on whether a tropical cyclone would form or not.
However, overnight model guidance, including the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and UKMET, is now in agreement on development of a tropical cyclone by Thursday/Friday in the western Gulf.
Considering this, it is reasonable to say that the chances of a tropical cyclone developing in the western Gulf/Bay of Campeche next week are starting to increase. As such, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted the Bay of Campeche for a low chance (20 percent) for tropical development in the latest tropical weather outlook.
That is about all we know, though. It is still far too early to say for certain where any tropical cyclone might track or how strong it might become should one form. However, current model guidance suggests a track either northwest or north toward the western or central Gulf Coast as a tropical storm is possible. Timing would be late next week/next weekend.
At this point this is still nothing to be worried over. Just continue to monitor the potential over the coming days.
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