The chances of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico next week continue to go up. The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Bay of Campeche to 40 percent (medium chance) over the next 5 days. An area of disturbed weather has already formed.
Model guidance is still supportive of a tropical cyclone forming by Thursday or Friday.
At this time, it looks like, should a tropical cyclone form, it will remain very broad/weak (tropical depression or storm) with most of the weather located to the east of the center. This fits with what we would expect from an early season tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico.
It is likely, but not a guarantee, that whatever is in the Bay of Campeche by late this upcoming week will move north toward the western or central Gulf Coast in about a week from now. However, it remains to be seen if it will be a broad low/disturbance or a tropical cyclone.
We will know more by early next week.
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