There are now three areas of interest in the Atlantic.
In addition to Invest 92L in the Bay of Campeche, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure off the coast of North Carolina and a strong tropical wave off of the coast of Africa.
Invest 93L
The area of low pressure off of the coast of North Carolina has been tagged Invest 93L. While currently non-tropical, it is acquiring some tropical characteristics.
Invest 93L is being given a high chance (70 percent) of developing, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form soon. However, it is not a concern as it will track off to the northeast, away from the east coast.
Invest 92L
There have been no significant changes with Invest 92L in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of development to 60 percent (medium) over the next 5 days.
It is becoming increasingly likely that Invest 92L will develop into a tropical cyclone. However, because of how large/broad Invest 92L is and the presence of westerly wind shear, immediate development is unlikely.
The most likely timeframe for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form is still late this week.
Confidence is increasing in a track toward the Texas or Louisiana coast this weekend, but this is not a guarantee. It is still unlikely that Invest 92L will become a strong system, and right now a large/weak east weighted tropical depression or storm remains the most likely outcome.
Invest 92L will bring heavy rain and the potential for flooding to a swath of the northern Gulf Coast this weekend, but where exactly is dependent on the ultimate track of Invest 92L.
Additionally, high seas, rough surf, and an increased risk for rip currents can also be expected along much of the Gulf Coast.
Tropical Wave
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa is being given a low chance (20 percent) of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.
This wave is not a concern for the U.S. as, even if it does develop, environmental conditions will become unfavorable in a few days.
However, it is a bit concerning to be watching a tropical wave in the east Atlantic for the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis this early.
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