The tropics remain quite active for June with three systems in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Two formed Monday morning and strengthened to a tropical storm overnight taking on the name Bill. Meanwhile, the tropical wave off of Africa was tagged Invest 94L while 92L is still sitting in the Bay of Campeche.
Neither Tropical Storm Bill or Invest 94L are a threat to the Gulf Coast (or U.S. for that matter), so we will focus on Invest 92L.
Invest 92L is now likely to become a tropical cyclone by Thursday or Friday. The National Hurricane Center puts the odds of development at 70 percent over the next 5 days.
Looking at the latest model guidance, it appears Invest 92L will begin to lift north Thursday, and approach the western or central Gulf Coast by Friday or Saturday.
We still don’t know exactly where Invest 92L will end up. Adding to the uncertainty is that some model guidance is now indicting an eventual north-northeast or northeast turn as Invest 92L nears the Gulf Coast. Right now somewhere along the coast of Texas or Louisiana is still most likely, but not a guarantee.
Due to the expected presence of southwesterly wind shear and dry air, a weak, east-weighted tropical depression or storm remains most likely. This means areas well away from the center will likely be impacted.
The latest quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center illustrates this well.
Heavy rain/flooding will likely be the main threat from Invest 92L. Notice that, even though the center is currently expected to move into Texas or Louisiana, the heaviest rainfall is forecast across southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
It should be noted that the QPF is subject to change as we still don’t know where Invest 92L will ultimately track and therefore where exactly the heaviest rain will occur.
In addition, rough seas/surf and an increased risk for rip currents will also be likely.
Details, including other possible impacts, will be worked out as Invest 92L develops.
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