Invest 92L is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC 3). The National Hurricane Center defines a potential tropical cyclone as “a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone, but which poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.”
PTC 3 is finally lifting north out of the Bay of Campeche. Landfall is still expected somewhere along the coast of Louisiana tomorrow night or Saturday morning. The exact track will depend on how PTC 3 evolves. Most model guidance is showing a center relocation to the northeast, near the area of deepest convection (thunderstorms). This would likely result in a slight east shift in the track.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next 12 to 24 hours. Accordingly, a tropical storm warning has been issued from Intracoastal City, LA to the Alabama/Florida border.
Westerly/southwesterly wind shear and dry air will keep PTC 3 from becoming anything more than a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 45 mph tropical storm at landfall.
The aforementioned shear and dry air is also likely to displace most of the convection well to the east of the center.
PTC 3 will bring rainfall accumulations of 4 – 8″ across southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle. Isolated rainfall accumulations in excess of 8″ will be possible.
Other threats/hazards will include high seas/rough surf, a high risk for rip currents along the northern Gulf Coast, minor coastal flooding/storm surge, and a risk for isolated tornadoes with outerbands/squalls.
Outerbands/squalls could begin to arrive along the northern Gulf Coast as early as Friday morning. However, conditions will really begin to deteriorate tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.
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