Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC 3) is a bit stronger this evening. As of the 4 PM CDT advisory maximum sustained winds were up to 45 mph. However, the system still lacks a well defined center of circulation, meaning it is not yet a tropical cyclone.
PTC 3 is moving north and will make landfall in southeast Louisiana within the next 12 hours. At this point in time it remains to be seen if PTC 3 will manage to become a tropical depression or storm with so little time left over water. Impacts will be the same regardless.
The precipitation shield is beginning to overspread southeast Louisiana and the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Tropical storm force winds have already been observed just off of Plaquemines Parish, LA. Conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight into tomorrow morning.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from east of Morgan City, LA to the Okaloosa County/Walton County line in Florida.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 – 8″ are still forecast across Louisiana, southeast Mississippi, south and central Alabama, and western Florida Panhandle. Isolated rainfall accumulations in excess of 8″ will be possible.
Other threats/hazards will include high seas/rough surf, a high risk for rip currents along the northern Gulf Coast through at least Monday, minor coastal flooding/storm surge (1 – 3′), and a risk for isolated tornadoes with outerbands/squalls.
While not the greatest concern, tropical storm force winds can also be expected in the tropical storm warning area.
After making landfall PTC 3 will track across southeast Mississippi and central/north Alabama tomorrow into Sunday while weakening.
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