The tropics are starting to get active again as Invest 94L, a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles, is organizing and likely to become a tropical cyclone today or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving Invest 94L an 80 percent (high) chance of development over both the next 2 and 5 days.
In their 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center noted that tropical storm watches or warnings may be needed for portions of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as early as this afternoon. This suggests advisories might be initiated this afternoon.
Over the next day or two Invest 94L will track through the Lesser Antilles tonight, near/across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow, and then near/across Hispaniola Wednesday.
While Invest 94L is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone, dry air combined with possible interaction with the Greater Antilles should keep it fairly weak (tropical depression or tropical storm strength) in the near term.
By Thursday or Friday most model guidance moves Invest 94L into the Bahamas and then possibly toward Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, or southwest Atlantic this weekend/early next week. However, it is important to note that what Invest 94L is at that time (tropical depression, storm, hurricane, or just an area of low pressure) is unknown.
Sea surface temperatures are plenty warm enough to support intensification in both the Gulf and southwest Atlantic/Bahamas. But we don’t know what the wind shear will be like or if there will be any dry air around. The latest SHIPS intensity guidance suggests that wind shear could increase as Invest 94L moves into the Bahamas.
The extent of land interaction with the Greater Antilles will also determine what Invest 94L looks like with respect to intensity/organization once it moves into the Bahamas early next week.
Right now most of the intensity guidance only brings Invest 94L up to tropical storm strength. Of course, this could change.
If you live anywhere in the southeast U.S. Invest 94L is nothing to be too concerned about at this time. Having said that, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the progress of Invest 94L this week.
Looking beyond Invest 94L, it does look like that tropics will remain active.
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