Tropical Storm Fred formed last night and is now moving across Hispaniola. As of the 2 PM AST/EDT advisory maximum sustained winds were 45 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. Movement was to the west-northwest at 16 mph.
A ridge (high pressure) extending from the west Atlantic into the Eastern U.S. will keep Fred on a west-northwest trajectory through at least Friday. This will bring Fred into the southeast Bahamas and near the northern coast of Cuba tomorrow/Friday, and possibly the Florida Straits and Florida Keys Friday/Saturday. Fred could also track a bit more north toward south Florida.
Land interaction with Hispaniola is likely to cause Fred to weaken signcantly. In fact, it would not be surprising if Fred weakens to a remnant after passing Hispaniola and redevelops later. However, conditions likely won’t be too favorable for intensification/redevelopment immediately after Fred passes over Hispaniola.
The latest wind shear analysis from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin shows an area of strong wind shear across the Bahamas. Proximity to Cuba could also inhibit intensification/redevelopment Friday/Saturday.
Fred will likely traverse the eastern Gulf this weekend and begin to turn northwest and then north as it rounds the western flank of the ridge. While wind shear could decrease at this time, the GFS and ECMWF indicate that dry air could be an issue.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Fred weakening to a tropical depression later this evening before strengthening back into a low-end tropical storm tomorrow evening. They NHC forecast also has Fred becoming a strong tropical storm by Sunday/Monday.
Currently the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Fred to skirt the northern coast of Cuba Thursday/Friday, traverse the eastern Gulf this weekend, and make landfall in the Florida Panhandle early Monday.
However, it is possible Fred could move up the Peninsula of Florida or end up going a bit farther west into the Gulf, toward Mississippi, Alabama, or even far southeast Louisiana. A south Florida landfall before moving into the Gulf also can’t be ruled out.
Impacts from Fred are looking increasingly likely for much of Florida, including parts of the Panhandle, this weekend into early next week. However, placement and magnitude of these impacts remain uncertain. This is because exact track and intensity are unknown.
Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fred in the coming days.
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