Tropical Depression Fred is moving west-northwest across northern Cuba this afternoon. As of the 2 PM EDT advisory maximum sustained winds were 35 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1013 mb.
A combination of land interaction with Cuba and around 20 knots of westerly/southwesterly wind shear is keeping Fred from reorganizing. Fred will continue to move west-northwest through tomorrow morning. A turn to the northwest is then expected as Fred moves into the Gulf and begins to round the periphery of a ridge (high pressure).
This will take Fred very near the Florida Keys and southwest Florida where a landfall can’t be ruled out – especially if there is a center relocation which some models, such as the GFS, show.
Some slight reorganization/intensification will be possible tomorrow as Fred begins to move away from Cuba. Wind shear might also lessen a bit by this time. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Fred reaching tropical storm status again tomorrow morning, but this might be a bit generous.
Fred will continue to be steered northwest by the aforementioned ridge as it moves across the eastern Gulf. This will bring the storm toward the Florida Panhandle sometime Sunday/Monday.
While Fred is forecast to strengthen some over the eastern Gulf, environmental conditions will not be ideal. It is possible wind shear will lessen some, but is unlikely to go away entirely. Additionally, there will be some dry air present.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Fred strengthening to a moderate tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph prior to landfall in the Florida Panhandle.
Near/after landfall Fred will begin to turn north as a weakness in the ridge develops. Where exactly Fred makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle is uncertain.
Models have trended west today. The 12z run of the ECMWF has Fred moving ashore in Okaloosa County, Florida Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, the GFS has Fred landfalling a bit farther east in Bay County, Florida Monday afternoon. The TVCN, a consensus model, currently has landfall in Okaloosa County Monday afternoon.
Regardless of how Fred evolves today into tomorrow, tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Florida Keys tomorrow, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will also be possible across a portions of the west coast of Florida late tomorrow and early Sunday, where a tropical storm watch is in effect.
The risk for tropical storm conditions will spread north along the west coast of Florida and into the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.
It is too early to pin down the exact placement/magnitude of impacts from Fred along the Florida Panhandle. However, heavy rain, gusty/tropical storm force winds, and rough surf/rip currents can be expected.
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