Land interaction with Cuba and wind shear has caused Fred to open back up into a tropical wave this morning. A reconnaissance aircraft was unable to find a closed low-level center.
As of the 11 AM EDT advisory, the remnants of Fred were over the southeast Gulf of Mexico moving west-northwest at 12 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1013 mb and maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
Fred’s remnants are expected to regenerate over as they traverse the eastern/central Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and Monday. The latest CIMSS wind shear analysis shows that shear has dropped to a more favorable 10 to 15 knots across the central and eastern Gulf.
Furthermore, model guidance is in agreement on Fred regenerating and reaching tropical storm strength prior to landfall along the Gulf Coast Monday/Tuesday.
Model guidance has trended a bit to the west once again. The ECMWF and GFS both now have Fred making landfall in Santa Rosa County, Florida late Monday/early Tuesday. The Latest TVCN consensus model has landfall near the AL/FL border late Monday/early Tuesday.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Fred regenerating into a tropical cyclone tomorrow morning and strengthening to a tropical storm tomorrow night. The NHC forecast also has landfall in Baldwin County, Alabama Monday night as a moderate tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
Having said that, since we don’t know where exactly the center of Fred will reform, changes to the track remain possible.
With the shift in track and degeneration some squally conditions and heavy rain can be expected across parts of the west coast of Florida and Florida Keys today and tomorrow. However, tropical storm conditions are no longer likely, and the heaviest rain should stay offshore of the Florida peninsula.
Tropical storm conditions are still expected along parts of the Florida Panhandle, and now potentially as far west as coastal Mississippi, Monday into Tuesday.
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