The remnants of Fred have redeveloped into a tropical storm. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft were able to locate a closed low-level center of circulation.
As of the 11 AM EDT advisory Fred was moving north-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb.
Fred is only about 36 hours from landfall. Some strengthening is likely up until that point. However, some southwesterly shear will continue and should prevent any significant/rapid intensification. The current expectation is for Fred to make landfall as a moderate to strong tropical storm.
Track guidance has shifted back to the east since yesterday and is now tightly clustered on a landfall in the western Florida Panhandle. The east shift is at least in part due to the fact that Fred’s new center formed a bit east of the “center” we had been tracking.
The ECMWF still has landfall in Santa Rosa County, FL late tomorrow. However, the GFS now has Fred making landfall in Walton County, FL late tomorrow.
Based on the latest model guidance, it is likely Fred will make landfall somewhere between Santa Rosa County, FL and Bay County, FL late tomorrow/early Tuesday.
Fred will bring bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, rough surf/rip currents, a storm surge of 1 – 4′, and the potential for tornadoes to much of the Florida Panhandle. Impacts are likely to begin tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds could arrive as early as tomorrow morning, but are most likely tomorrow tomorrow afternoon into early Tuesday.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Navarre, FL to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre, FL.
It is important to note that, due to the aforementioned southwesterly wind shear, the worst of the weather will likely occur along/east of where Fred makes landfall.
After Fred makes landfall it will rapidly weaken.
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