Fred Strengthening; Will Make Landfall in Florida Panhandle Late This Afternoon or Early This Evening

IR satellite image of Fred from 10:16 AM CDT August 16, 2021. (Image: NASA)

Tropical Storm Fred is strengthening this morning. As of the 10 AM CDT advisory, maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph and the pressure has dropped to 993 mb.

Fred is now moving north at 10 mph and will make landfall between Panama City and Port Saint Joe late this afternoon/early this evening.

As stated above, Fred is strengthening and becoming better organized. Satellite imagery shows deep convection wrapping around the center with a central dense overcast. Given the strengthening/organizational trend this morning, it is possible Fred could become a category 1 hurricane before landfall.

Forecast track for Fred as of 10 AM CDT August 16, 2021. (Image: National Hurricane Center)

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Fred coming ashore with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.

Fred will begin to turn north-northeast/northeast near/after landfall and will rapidly weaken after landfall.

Impacts have started across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Conditions will only begin to deteriorate as the day progresses.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Navarre, FL to the Steinhatchee River in Taylor, County. A storm surge warning is also in effect from Indian Pass in Gulf County to Yankeetown in Levy County, FL.

Latest quantitative precipitation forecast for Fred as of 2:32 AM CDT August 16, 2021. (Image: NOAA/NWS/NCEP/WPC)

Tropical storm force winds (greater than 39 mph) and heavy rain can be expected within the tropical storm warning area. A storm surge of 1 – 5′ is also expected within the storm surge warning area.

There will also be a risk of tornadoes to the north and east of the center with outerbands/squalls. A tornado watch is in effect for most of the eastern Florida Panhandle, extreme southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia.

Dangerous/high surf is also occurring from southwest Alabama east down the west coast of Florida and will continue into tomorrow. High surf advisories/warnings and rip currents statements are in effect.

Small craft advisories are also in effect from southeast Louisiana to portions of the west coast of Florida.

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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