Tropical Depression Nine (formerly Invest 99L) formed this morning and has since strengthened into a tropical storm taking the name Ida.
As of the 8 PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Ida was located over the northwest Caribbean at 18.0 degrees north and 80.1 degrees west (roughly between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands). Maximum sustained winds were 40 mph and the minimum central pressure was 1006 mb. Movement was northwest at 13 mph.
Currently Ida is not all that well organized. Data from a reconnaissance aircraft this evening indicates that the low-level center is not all that well defined and is displaced to the south/southwest of the convective (thunderstorm) activity.
A ridge (high pressure) over the western Atlantic is steering Ida to the northwest. This ridge will continue to keep Ida on a northwest trajectory through Sunday, and Ida will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow/Saturday.
Ida will approach the U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday. Model guidance has trended east since yesterday and is honing in on a southeast Louisiana landfall late Sunday/early Monday. Having said that, there is still a bit of uncertainty, and landfall anywhere from the upper Texas coast to southwest Alabama can’t yet be entirely ruled out.
The primary reason for this is that, as stated above, Ida’s center is not that well defined yet, and reformations are possible which would have downstream implications on the forecast track.
Having said that, while the track forecast is still a bit uncertain, there is a bit more certainty with the intensity forecast. This is unusual as the inverse is normally true. It is very likely that Ida will become a strong hurricane as it traverses the Gulf of Mexico.
Essentially all of the model guidance, including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF have Ida strengthening significantly over the central/northern Gulf Sunday. Additionally, the latest SHIPS intensity forecast shows light wind shear and high mid-level relative humidity values as Ida traverses the Gulf.
Sea surface temperatures also range from 30 to 31 degrees Celsius across much of the Gulf, and are even around 32 degrees Celsius near the coast of Louisiana. Ida is also forecast to pass over the loop current which has high oceanic heat content.
Based on all of this, it is very possible Ida could become a major hurricane.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Ida intensifying into a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph Sunday just prior to landfall in southeast Louisiana.
Ida is very likely to be a dangerous, high impact storm for the central Gulf Coast, and there is an increasing risk for dangerous, hurricane-force winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge – especially for portions of Louisiana.
Hurricane, storm surge, and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight or tomorrow morning.
Interests from the upper Texas coast to the far western Florida Panhandle should closely monitor Ida’s progress. Residents in the cone should also begin putting their hurricane plans in place.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
