Ida has strengthened while traversing the Gulf of Mexico as expected. As of the 7 PM CDT advisory maximum sustained winds were 105 mph, making Ida a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. The minimum central pressure had dropped to 969 mb and movement was to the northwest at 16 mph.
Environmental conditions will remain favorable for additional intensification up until landfall, and rapid intensification is still expected. However, one thing to note is the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle as Ida nears the Gulf Coast. This could cause some fluctuation in intensity (weakening).
The official forecast is still for a Ida to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane at landfall.
So far today Ida has tracked a bit to the east of the forecast track. As a result the track has shifted a bit to the east. But, overall, it hasn’t changed too much, and landfall is likely to be in in Terrebonne Parish or Lafourche Parish tomorrow afternoon.
Ida is going to bring significant to potentially catastrophic impacts to southeast and portions of south-central Louisiana. A peak storm surge of 10 – 15′ is still forecast from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Hurricane force winds will also occur across south-central and southeast Louisiana and could spread into portions of southwest Mississippi. Tropical storm force winds will be likely across coastal Mississippi and will be possible as far east as coastal Alabama.
Up to 10 – 20″ of rain is also still forecast across south-central and southeast Louisiana and into portions of southern Mississippi. Heavy rain from squalls will also be likely as far east as the western Florida Panhandle where 6 – 10″ of rain is now forecast. There will be a threat for flooding with the greatest threat being in south-central and southeast Louisiana.
There will be a threat for isolated tornadoes across south-central and southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle tomorrow. The threat will persist into Monday and expand farther north into Mississippi and Alabama.
After landfall Ida will turn north and then northeast and move into the Mississippi River Valley and Tennessee Valley. Rapid weakening is expected as Ida moves inland, and as the storm moves into the Mississippi River Valley and Tennessee Valley, so will the threat of heavy rain, and likely severe weather.
Rough surf/high seas are also expected, and there will be a high risk for rip currents along most northern Gulf Coast beaches.
All preparations should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm force winds will likely begin to move onshore tomorrow morning, but could arrive as early as tonight.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
