A surface trough (Invest 91L) currently located over Central America and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula will need to be monitored for tropical development in the western and central Gulf next week.
Invest 91L is going to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, but unfavorable upper-level winds (wind shear) will likely preclude tropical cyclogenesis.
However, a cold front is expected to pull Invest 91L north and northeast into the northwest or north-central Gulf by Tuesday/Wednesday, where conditions could be conducive enough for some development.
Looking at the model guidance, the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all develop Invest 91L into a tropical depression or tropical storm sometime mid to late next week in their latest runs.
The National Hurricane Center is currently giving Invest 91L a 30 percent chance of development over the next 5 days.
While model guidance has been fairly consistent with developing Invest 91L for the past two or three model cycles, there has still been a lot of run-to-run variability with both track and intensity.
For now Invest 91L is nothing to be too concerned about, but interests from Texas to the Florida Panhandle should monitor its progress.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is looking increasingly likely for portions of the northern Gulf Coast next week.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
