Invest 91L has lifted north out of the Bay of Campeche and is now in the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Convective (shower/thunderstorm) activity increased today but has diminished this evening.
However, upper-level winds (wind shear) are now marginally conducive for development, and it is possible Invest 91L could quickly spin up into a tropical/subtropical depression or storm tomorrow.
The National Hurricane Center is now giving Invest 91L a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next 2 and 5 days.
Looking at the latest model guidance, today’s 18z GFS and ECMWF both develop Invest 91L into a small tropical/subtropical depression or storm tomorrow.
Invest 91L will turn northeast tomorrow afternoon as a cold front drops into the Southeast and will likely come ashore in the Florida Panhandle between Destin and Apalachicola tomorrow afternoon/night. Having said that, it is possible Invest 91L could make landfall a bit farther east in the Big Bend region.
Regardless of development, some heavy rain/storms can be expected across portions of the Florida Panhandle, south Alabama, and south Georgia tomorrow into tomorrow night.
If Invest 91L does develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm prior to moving into the Florida Panhandle, it would likely be fairly weak (depression or low-end tropical/subtropical storm) as environmental conditions aren’t ideal and the system only has another day or so left over water.
As stated above, if Invest 91L does develop, it will do so rather quickly. Interests in the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor its progress.
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