Severe weather is possible across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast late this week into this weekend. A mid to upper level trough is going to dig into the Plains Friday and then lift into the Great Lakes region Saturday.
Meanwhile, a surface low will shift out of the Plains and into the Great Lakes. A strong cold front associated with the surface low will advance out of the Plains and across the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday night and into the Southeast Saturday.
Strong to severe storms will be likely along/ahead of the cold front. However, based on current model guidance, it does look like instability could be limited.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather for Friday for northern Louisiana and Mississippi and extreme northwest Alabama. A marginal risk area also extends down into east Texas. Note that this outlook can, and likely will, change between now and Friday.
While a risk area has not been defined for Saturday, it is likely a threat for severe weather will still exist as the cold front advances into the Southeast Saturday.
It is a bit early for specifics, but as of now all hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) appear possible.
In the wake of the front a much cooler and drier air mass will filter in. This will bring an end to the very warm, humid, and foggy pattern that has been in place across the Gulf Coast region recently.
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