A transition to a more active pattern looks to take place starting with severe weather potential midweek. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a 15 percent (slight) risk area for parts of the southeast in their Day 4 (Wednesday) Convective Outlook.
It is too early for specifics (i.e., timing, overall magnitude of the the threat, what the primary hazards will be) due to discrepancies in the model guidance. Considering this, expect changes to the risk area in future outlooks. However, at the very least some strong/severe storms appear likely.
This severe weather threat will kick off an active pattern, as their are indications of another severe weather threat for the south/southeast about a week from now. It is clearly too early to say much more than that, but the SPC has noted the possibility in their Day 4 – 8 Convective Outlook.
Furthermore, there are signs that the current stretch of above average temperatures will end next weekend/early next week.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
