The New Year will start with a severe weather threat for parts of the Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, and Southeast.
An enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather has been defined for eastern Arkansas, north and central Mississippi and Alabama, much of Tennessee, and a portion of southern Kentucky tomorrow.
Storms are expected to develop along/ahead of a cold front.
While there is some uncertainty with respect to the overall magnitude of the severe weather threat, the Storm Prediction Center noted there is a “risk of a higher end event including strong tornadoes” in their Day 2 Convective Outlook issued at 1703z December 31, 2021.
Generally speaking, the environment will be favorable for severe weather. However, model guidance is indicating that an inversion (temperature increase with height) could limit/suppress thunderstorm development – at least initially. This would tamper the overall threat somewhat.
Regardless, an enhanced risk is a 3 on a scale of 1 to 5, and means numerous severe storms will be possible. All severe hazards (damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail) will be possible.
One thing to watch is the potential for development of discrete storms/supercells tomorrow afternoon/evening. These could pose a heightened tornado risk, but supercell development depends on what happens with the inversion. Model guidance then shows a line of storms developing overnight along/ahead of the cold front.
The line will move through southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, south Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Sunday morning. It will pose primarily a damaging wind threat. But an isolated tornado or two and some instances of hail can’t be ruled out.
A marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk area had been defined for Sunday.
If you live in the risk area, be sure to have a way to receive watches and warnings tomorrow.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
