Model guidance is in agreement on potential for an impactful storm for the Southeast, Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeast late this weekend/early next week.
A shortwave (disturbance) is expected to dive out of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday.
This will induce the development of a surface low somewhere in the Lower Mississippi Valley/near the Central Gulf Coast. Where exactly this low develops and its exact track is uncertain. At this time it is expected that the low track across the Southeast Sunday before moving off to the northeast early next week (Monday – Tuesday).
Rain and some thunderstorms will be likely across the southeast, including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. But severe weather appears unlikely at this time due to a lack of instability.
There could also be some potential for wintry precipitation, and even an impactful winter weather event, for portions of the Southeast. In fact, this is what today’s 12z model suite suggests. However, given this event is still 4 – 5 day out, model solutions can and likely will change.
So while there is potential for some winter weather in parts of the Southeast this weekend, and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early next week, it is too early to say anything more than that at this time.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
