An impactful storm system remains likely for parts of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeast this weekend/early next week.
Unsurprisingly, there have been some changes since yesterday’s update. Model guidance, most notably the GFS, has trended the track of the surface low, which has yet to develop, a bit farther north as it slides across the Southeast and west as it rides up the east coast Sunday/Monday. Models have also trended a bit faster.
Despite the shift in model guidance, and the possibility of additional shifts, confidence is increasing for a significant winter weather event/storm for parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, northern Georgia, Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeast this weekend going into early next week.
For north Louisiana and north/central Alabama and Mississippi, impacts will likely be limited with respect to frozen precipitation based on current data. Soundings indicate some light snow and/or a wintry mix will be possible during the day Sunday on the back side of the low. The best chance will be north of I-20.
However, given that this event is still 4 days out, changes continue to be possible. Farther south, rain/thunderstorms will be likely. But severe weather still looks unlikely due to a lack of instability.
Much colder air will move Sunday night into Monday.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
