A severe weather threat remains likely from the southern Plains into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio Valley next Wednesday and Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to define a 15% (slight, or level 2 out of 5) risk area for both days.
The trigger is going to be a shortwave trough (mid/upper level disturbance) that is going to pivot into the southern Plains Wednesday and then lift northeast across the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Thursday.
Meanwhile, at the surface, an attendant surface low will bring a cold front east across the central and eastern U.S. during the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. This front will likely serve as a lifting mechanism for storms.
Model guidance is also advertising dew points in the 60 – 70 degree F range and instability (CAPE) values in the 250 – 1000 J/kj range in the warm sector. Strong vertical wind shear also continues to be depicted by model as well.
The overall synoptic set up/environment will likely favor severe weather next Wednesday and Thursday. However, remains too early to get into specifics (magnitude, hazards/threats, timing, etc.); expect more clarity as we go into early next week.
For now just know that severe weather is possible and monitor the forecast/updates from your local National Weather Service office and/or local media.
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