The Storm Prediction Center has introduced an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather for portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley tomorrow.
A shortwave (mid/upper level disturbance) is going to eject northeast out of the southern Plains tomorrow.
Meanwhile, at the surface an area of low pressure is going to deepen as it tracks across lower/mid Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and eventually into the Ohio Valley while bringing a trailing cold front east.
The greatest risk for severe weather will be in the enhanced risk area tomorrow afternoon from roughly 12 PM to 8 PM CST. All severe hazards will be possible, but tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds will be the main concern.
While strong/severe storms are expected tomorrow, there is some uncertainty with regard to exactly how things will unfold. Wind shear will be more than supportive of severe storms, including supercells, but most model guidance keeps CAPE (instability) rather limited.
Storms will progress into south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tomorrow night. However, they should be weakening by this time. Nonetheless, a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather has been delineated by the SPC.
If you are in the risk area be sure to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings tomorrow.
For the most up to date information, and information specific to your local area, be sure to follow updates from your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) and local media outlets.
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