There is a threat for severe weather for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama tomorrow and Tuesday.
Tomorrow
The Storm Prediction Center has defined a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather for northeast Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and far western Tennessee and Kentucky.
A marginal (level 1 out of 5) encompasses this slight risk area and extends from Texas to the northwest corner of Alabama.
It appears an inversion, or CAP, will be present during the day tomorrow. An inversion is a layer of warm air aloft that can prevent air from rising and therefore thunderstorms from forming. However, storms are expected to develop by the afternoon/evening into early Tuesday as a shortwave (upper-level disturbance) ejects from the Southwest into the mid Mississippi Valley.
All severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail) will be possible.
Tuesday
For Tuesday, a slight risk for severe weather has also been defined for parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley.
A marginal risk area stretches down to the western Gulf Coast. Storms, including potential supercells, are expected to develop during the afternoon along/ahead of a cold front and progress east into the evening and overnight.
All severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) will once again be possible. The Storm Prediction Center notes that storms could organize into a line by the late afternoon/evening. This would mean that damaging winds would likely become the primary concern by this time.
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