A potentially significant multi-day severe weather event is going to unfold across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Southeast early next week.
The Storm Prediction Center has already defined an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk of severe weather for east Texas into western Louisiana Monday.
Overnight Monday into Tuesday the threat will shift east across the remainder of Louisiana and into Mississippi and Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a 30% risk (equivalent to an enhanced risk) for severe thunderstorms for eastern Louisiana, central and much of south Mississippi, and into western Alabama.
Severe weather will also be possible across the Southeast, including southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, Tuesday night into Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a 15% (slight) risk for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday.
They synoptic scale set up will largely be favorable for (possibly significant) severe weather early next week. An upper-level trough/low over the Rockies/Plains is going to gradually shift east and allow for very strong southwesterly flow aloft.
Meanwhile, at the surface an occluded surface low/cyclone will track northeast out of the Rockies/Plains and into the middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning with strong southerly/southeasterly low-level flow expected.
The aforementioned flow aloft and at the surface should result in strong speed and directional wind shear. Furthermore, the strong southerly/southeasterly low-level flow will result in warm/moist air advection from the Gulf. This should result in ample instability/CAPE.
From today’s SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook with respect to Tuesday:
“Overall, given very strong shear, the strength of the upper system, and the Gulf warm sector expected inland, a high-end environment appears likely to exist across a geographically-focused area centered over the central Gulf Coast states, supporting potential for a substantial outbreak of severe/supercell storms.”
It does look like the environment might not be quite as favorable for severe weather Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there will still be potential for strong/severe storms.
While it is too early to know exactly how this event will evolve, current indications suggest it could be significant/substantial with all modes of severe weather possible (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
Be sure to monitor forecast updates from your local National Weather Service weather forecast office and/or local media in the coming days.
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