A significant severe weather event is still likely to unfold across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast tomorrow through Wednesday.
Tomorrow
There is an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather for eastern Texas tomorrow.
It appears a squall line/mesoscale convective system (MCS) will develop by Monday evening/night and shift eastward into Louisiana by early Tuesday. The environment will also be supportive of supercells.
All severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail), including a few strong tornadoes, will be possible.
Tuesday
The threat will shift east Tuesday, and a moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk for severe weather is in place for parts of southern/central Louisiana and Mississippi. For context, the Storm Prediction Center doesn’t define a moderate risk area in their Day 3 Convective Outlook too often.
Looking at the latest model guidance, the squall line/MCS will continue progressing east into/across the lower Mississippi Valley through the day and will be capable of producing all modes of severe weather. But of greatest concern is the potential for discrete storms/supercells that could form ahead of it.
Strong southerly low-level flow, 70 – 90 kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb, and a 50 – 70 kt 850 mb jet will yield very favorable wind shear for rotating updrafts. Furthermore, current projected SB/ML CAPE (instability) values in the 1000 – 2500 j/kg suggests development of strong updrafts is likely.
All severe hazards will be possible, including strong/significant tornadoes. The SPC is continuing to mention the possibility of a “regional severe-weather outbreak.”
Tuesday Night and Wednesday
The threat for severe weather will shift into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and farther into the Southeast during the day Wednesday.
Overall, the severe weather threat may be lower, but all severe hazards will remain possible. The primary storm mode should become linear as the squall line/MCS continues east.
Be sure to monitor forecast updates from your local National Weather Service weather forecast office and/or local media in the coming days.
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