There is once again the possibility of regional severe weather outbreak across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast.
An expansive moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk for severe weather has been defined by the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow. Currently a large/intense QLCS (squall line) capable of producing all severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail) is expected to progress quickly east across the risk area.
The QLCS will track through Louisiana and Mississippi during the day tomorrow and Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tomorrow night into early Thursday morning.
While all severe hazards will be possible, significant severe winds gusts (75 mph+) and strong tornadoes embedded in the QLCS will be the primary threats. The SPC has also defined a significant “hatched” area for both tornadoes and damaging winds.
In the significant tornado hatched area there is a 10% or greater probability of EF-2 – EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
In the significant wind hatched area there is a 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 kts or greater within 25 miles of a point.
One thing to watch for is the possibility of the southern portion of the QLCS becoming more broken with embedded supercells by tomorrow afternoon/evening. If this occurs, any supercells would be capable of producing strong/significant tornadoes.
Some discrete/semi discrete cells could develop ahead of QLCS, but currently this is not expected.
If you are in the risk area be sure to monitor the latest updates/forecast from your local National Weather Service forecast office and/or local media. And be sure to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings tomorrow.
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