There continues is a significant threat for severe weather across the area tonight into early tomorrow.
A moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk area remains in place. This is very unusual for our area. For context, the last time we were in a moderate risk was February 22-23, 2016; this event produced an EF-3 tornado that tracked from western Pensacola, across Escambia Bay, and into western Santa Rosa County on the night of February 23.
Storm mode tonight is expected to be primarily linear. A QLCS/squall line is expected to sweep through the area between 11 PM and 5 AM CDT. This QLCS has already formed and is currently in east Texas. It should intensify as it tracks across Louisiana and Mississippi this afternoon into this evening.
We will also have to watch for any discrete cells that could form just ahead of the main line. However, it is uncertain if any discrete cells will develop.
All severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail) will be possible. However, the primary concern is going to be damaging winds and embedded tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph will be possible along with strong (EF-2+) tornadoes that could be fast moving.
Any discrete cells will also be capable of producing strong/significant tornadoes.
Be sure to have a way to receive watches and warnings tonight.
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