For the past several model cycles guidance has been generally consistent with the idea of some sort of tropical system developing in either the southwestern Gulf or northwest Caribbean in 7 – 10 days.
Unlike the recent GFS ‘modelcane’ there is multi model support for development. This suggests that this is a legitimate signal for development, but details are still murky. The deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models all show a broad low or tropical storm forming in the Bay of Campeche by mid/late next week – possibly from the remnants of tropical cyclone crossing over from the eastern Pacific.
However, the GFS then shoves the system back into Mexico and spawns an entirely new system in the northwest Caribbean from the Central American Gyre (CAG). Conversely, the ECMWF and CMC keep the system meandering over the southwest Gulf.
There is support for development from the GFS and ECMWF ensembles as well with many members showing a system in the Gulf or northwest Caribbean in 7 – 10 days.
The Climate Prediction Center has also highlighted the Bay of Campeche and parts of the northwest Caribbean for a moderate chance of tropical cyclone formation in their latest Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook.
With that being said, development is not a certainty and this is just something to keep an eye on for now. Early indications are that if anything were to from it would likely be rather broad and disorganized due to strong wind shear.
For future updates be sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. You can also subscribe to our Substack newsletter:
