It is looking increasingly likely that there will be early season tropical development in either the southwest Gulf or northwest Caribbean next week.
Model guidance continues to be in agreement on development by mid/late next week. However, some differences remain. The latest runs of the ECMWF and CMC have a system developing in the Bay of Campeche from the remnants of what will soon be Hurricane Agatha in the eastern Pacific.
Meanwhile, the GFS has an entirely new system forming in the northwest Caribbean from the Central American Gyre that helped spawn Agatha. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles show similar differences.
Currently the National Hurricane Center appears to favor the ECMWF solution, and are now giving a 20 percent chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche in the next 5 days.
While the odds of something forming in the southwest Gulf/northwest Caribbean next week are increasing, details are murky, and it is too early to say with confidence where any potential system would track and how strong it would become. However, it is worth noting that June tropical cyclones that form in the Gulf/Caribbean are usually very broad/weak and east weighted.
For now this remains nothing to worry about and is just something to keep an eye on.
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