There is now a high chance that the first tropical cyclone of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will form in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico late this week. Model guidance is in agreement on a broad, east-weighted tropical depression or storm forming from a large low/disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday or Friday and lifting northeast toward central and south Florida, Cuba, and/or the Bahamas by Saturday.
In their 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center increased the chance of development to 70 percent over the next 5 days.
The remnants of Hurricane Agatha, which made landfall in Mexico yesterday as a category 2 hurricane, will play a role. However, if a tropical depression or storm does form it will take the name Alex. This is because Agatha dissipated over Mexico and tropical cyclogenesis on the Atlantic side will be the result of the remnants being absorbed into a larger low/disturbance.
While model guidance is in agreement, some differences remain. The ECMWF favors a more consolidated, but still broad/large, system with a track across Florida. Meanwhile, the GFS favors a less consolidated system with multiple competing vortices and a track south of Florida – across Cuba and into the Bahamas. At this time it seems the ECMWF may be more correct than the GFS which could be suffering with convective feedback issues.
Regardless of how the system ultimately evolves, a combination of wind shear and dry air should keep a lid on intensity with a tropical depression or storm being the most likely outcome if a TC does form.
Development or not, there is potential heavy rainfall and squally conditions across portions of the Florida peninsula this weekend depending on the exact track. If the low stays south of Florida as the GFS shows impact will be minimal.
Be sure to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office and/or local media over the coming days.
Models do indicate that some strengthening could occur in the southwest Atlantic after the system tracks through Florida and/or the Bahamas and Cuba. However, this is not all that important at the moment, especially since there is no developed TC yet.
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