Invest 98L has moved into the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Development chances remain high at 70 percent through the next 2 days and 90 percent through the next 5 days.
At this point we are reasonably confident that Invest 98L will develop into a tropical depression or storm sometime in the next few days and eventually move into the western Caribbean by next Monday/Tuesday. Environmental conditions won’t favor much development/intensification in the short term. However, they still look to become more favorable once Invest 98L moves into the central and western Caribbean.
Model guidance continues to be very consistent with Invest 98L becoming a hurricane in the western Caribbean.
With respect to track, uncertainty in the 7 to 10 day range is still high. There remains plenty of spread in the model guidance. However, it is likely that an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. will allow Invest 98L to turn north or northeast out of the western Caribbean next week. The primary reason models differ is because of how they handle this trough.
Today’s 12z run of the operational GFS has the trough lifting out and ridging building in its wake allowing for Invest 98L to move move farther west into the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico before turning north/northeast. Meanwhile, the 12z ECMWF has the trough lifting out much later allowing for Invest 98L to be pulled north and eventually northeast into Florida. Looking at the other guidance, the CMC is similar to the GFS while the UKMET is similar to the ECMWF.
Ensemble guidance doesn’t offer anymore clarity. There is still a large spread in tracks ranging from the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bahamas/southwest Atlantic.
The exact track will depend on the evolution of the trough which will determine when/if Invest 98L turns north or northeast. The position of Invest 98L in the Caribbean prior to lifting north will also play a role.
At this point Invest 98L is still nothing to panic over if you live in Florida or along the Gulf Coast, but you should monitor its progress. It also wouldn’t hurt to go over your hurricane plan/supplies. We should know more in the coming days.
To summarize:
- We are confident that Invest 98L will develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next few days and reach the Caribbean by early next week where conditions will likely favor intensification – potentially significant intensification.
- We are also reasonably confident that Invest 98L will eventually lift out of the Caribbean sometime mid to late next week. Where exactly this turn occurs is uncertain due to the evolution of an upper-level trough expected to be in place over the eastern U.S. early next week.
- Invest 98L could impact the eastern Gulf Coast or the Florida Peninsula next week. However, details are impossible to pin down/know due to the aforementioned uncertainties.
- Invest 98L is still nothing to panic over if you live in Florida or along the Gulf Coast, but you should monitor its progress. It also wouldn’t hurt to go over your hurricane plan/supplies.
- We should have more clarity in the coming days.
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