Tropical Storm Ian has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph this morning. Confidence remains rather low with respect to Ian’s track once past Cuba. The GFS and ECMWF, as well as their ensembles, continue to be very different.
The GEFS favors a track farther west into the eastern Gulf and then toward the Panhandle/Big Bend.
Meanwhile, the EPS continues to be farther east with the mean still into the Florida Peninsula. However, the EPS did shift west some overnight.
The latest forecast from the NHC essentially splits the difference.
A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Ian shows that the storm is rather disorganized with the center located slightly farther south than expected. A major hurricane is still expected in the southeast Gulf Tuesday.
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