Tropical Storm Ian is holding intensity this evening over the central Caribbean. As of the 8 PM EDT advisory maximum sustained winds were still 45 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb.
Wind shear has dropped to 5-10 knots over Ian based on the latest analysis from CIMSS.
However, the low level and mid level centers have not aligned preventing intensification. Once this occurs, and it will since wind shear has decreased, Ian will intensify. – possibly rapidly.
Unfortunately the track forecast beyond Cuba remains uncertain. Model guidance has continued to trend west this afternoon. The GFS and GFS ensembles (GEFS) now favor a landfall in the Florida Panhandle Thursday/Friday.
The ECMWF and its ensembles (EPS) are still farther east and favor a landfall along the west coast of Florida, but they have also shifted west today with the ECMWF and EPS mean now showing a track up or parallel to the west coast of Florida.
The primary reason the GFS and ECMWF differ is how they handle an upper-level trough over the eastern half of the country. The ECMWF has a slightly deeper trough that doesn’t lift out as fast. A deeper trough that doesn’t lift out as fast would allow for a farther east track while a trough that is not as deep and lifts out faster would allow for a more west track – possibly into the Florida Panhandle.
Because of the shifts west today the NHC has gradually been nudging the track west. Further adjustments west, or back east, will be possible.
It is worth noting that even if additional shifts west occur, Ian is unlikely to make it as far west as somewhere like Texas or Louisiana.
Ian is still forecast to become a major hurricane. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now has Ian becoming a category 4 hurricane over the eastern Gulf Tuesday. However, some weakening is forecast prior to landfall because of an increase in wind shear and dry air. If Ian takes a track farther east and makes landfall along Florida’s west coast Wednesday, similar to previous forecasts, it would likely make landfall as a stronger storm.
Depending on the exact track, Ian will likely make landfall between Wednesday and Friday.
Those that live in the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Peninsula should continue to closely monitor the forecast for Ian. Everyone in the state of Florida should check their hurricane supplies and make sure their hurricane plan is ready to be implemented if necessary.
To summarize:
- Ian is likely to begin intensify tonight or tomorrow once the low and mid level centers align.
- It is likely Ian will intensify significantly, possibly rapidly, as it moves through the northwestern Caribbean and is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane in the eastern Gulf by Tuesday.
- The track has been shifted west today due to a westward model trend. Additional shifts east, or back west, are possible. But a shift as far west as somewhere like Texas or Louisiana is unlikely.
- Ian is forecast to weaken some prior to landfall due to an increase in wind shear and dry air, but Ian’s strength at landfall will depend on the exact track.
- Those in the Florida Panhandle and Peninsula should continue to closely monitor the forecast for Ian.
- Everyone in the state of Florida should check their hurricane supplies and make sure their hurricane plan is ready to be implemented if necessary.
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