Ian is a bit stronger. Winds are up to 50 mph. Other than that there have been no changes with Ian overnight. Ian should begin to intensify at a faster pace soon as environmental conditions are favorable.
The GFS and ECMWF continue to diverge on track after Cuba with the former on the western side of the guidance envelope and the latter on the eastern side. However, there have not been any additional shifts west.
Right now a landfall somewhere in the Big Bend south to around Tampa appears likely, and this is what the latest NHC track shows, but is not locked in.
Impacts and strength at landfall will largely depend on track. A track farther west with a landfall farther north would result in a weaker storm at landfall while a track farther east with a landfall farther south would result in a stronger storm at landfall.
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