Ian got significantly better organized overnight allowing it to intensify into a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Rapid intensification is expected through today and tonight, and Ian should be a category 4 hurricane over the southeastern tomorrow.
The latest track from the NHC still has Ian as a category 3 hurricane just off of Tampa Wednesday/early Thursday with a significant decrease in forward speed as steering currents weaken. Some of the model guidance, including the ECMWF and GFS, is even hinting at a stall. This would prolong wind, rain, and storm surge impacts.
Any slight shifts in the track east or west will have significant implications with respect to impacts along the west coast of Florida.
A hurricane watch is now in effect along the west coast of Florida from Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from Englewood to Chokoloskee.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West.
A storm surge watch is also in effect from the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas.
Anyone residing within the hurricane watch area north into the Big Bend should begin implementing their hurricane plan. Those under a storm surge watch, but not under the hurricane watch, should also make appropriate preparations.
Ian is expected to track into the eastern Florida Panhandle/northern Florida by Friday/Saturday. It will be much weaker by this time due to an increase in wind shear and dry air, but remain an impactful storm. This also holds true if it were to make it a bit farther west into the Panhandle which is still possible though unlikely.
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