After a slow start to the peak of what is predicted to be a hyperactive hurricane season, it seems that activity is about to pick up some. There are currently three areas of interest being monitored for tropical development across the Atlantic by the National Hurricane Center. One is an area of low pressure near the coast of Texas, another is a tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic, and the third is a tropical wave just off the coast of Africa.
Right now, the second system, the tropical wave the central Tropical Atlantic, warrants the most attention. Model guidance has generally been trending toward development of this tropical wave, and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 40 percent chance of developing over the next 7 days. It is expected to keep tracking west over the next 5 to 7 days.
While models have been trending toward development, there has been a lot of run-to-run variability. Some runs of the various global models used for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis have dropped development completely only to predict development again on the next run. Having said that, no models have dropped the feature completely, and ensemble support, particularly from the ECMWF ensembles (EPS), has remained fairly consistent.
Model trends today have been for development to be delayed until the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean next week.
As of right now the tropical wave is not showing any signs of organization. While this feature does warrant the most attention over the coming days, it is just something to keep an eye on for now and is not an immediate threat.
The area of low pressure near the Texas coast is unlikely to develop. Models don’t do much with it, and there is nothing to suggest it is attempting to organize into a tropical cyclone at this time. However, it is bringing heavy rainfall and a generally unsettled weather to parts of Texas and Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center currently gives it a low chance (20 percent) of development over the next 7 days.
The other tropical wave is so far out in the Atlantic that there is not much to say about it right now.
For future updates be sure to follow us on Facebook, Threads, and Instagram. You can also subscribe to our Substack newsletter:
