It is increasingly likely that a tropical cyclone (TC) is going to form in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico during the middle or end of next week.
Looking at the latest model guidance, the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC, as well as other models such as the German ICON, are predicting development. However, they differ on exactly when and where. The GFS and CMC both predict development to occur in the northwest Caribbean as early as Monday or Tuesday, while the ECMWF predicts development around Thursday or Friday in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche.
Ensemble guidance doesn’t really provide much clarity either. The GFS ensembles (GEFS) and ECMWF ensembles (EPS) both have a large spread. However, there is a clear signal for development.
One thing that will make it hard to determine if / when development will occur is that a Central American Gyre (CAG) will provide the catalyst for any development. A CAG is essentially a very large area of low pressure and disturbed weather that can lead to (TC) genesis in the eastern Pacific, western Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center is currently placing the chance of development at 40 percent over the next 7 days. It should be noted that the synoptic pattern over the continental United States next week will likely eventually allow any disturbance / TC to move north. Beyond that it is simply too early to know where any disturbance / TC would track.
For now this is nothing to worry about, but it is definitely something to monitor.
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