Tropical development remains a possibility in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week. However, nothing has really changed since yesterday’s update.
Development is expected to occur as a result of a Central American Gyre (CAG). This makes it hard to predict when and where any tropical cyclone (TC) would form as there will likely be multiple areas of vorticity/lows embedded in the broader gyre. Which one becomes dominant (assuming one does, or the entire gyre develops as it lifts north) is something model guidance is struggling with and is causing a lot of run-to-run volatility. Therefore, it is pointless to breakdown each individual model prediction.
With that being said, there continues to be a growing signal, and strong model support, for development. As such, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of development to 50 percent over the next 7 days.
Turning to the synoptic scale pattern over the United States next week, it seems that there will be an upper-level trough or cut-off low somewhere over the Central/Eastern U.S. by late week/next weekend based on ensemble guidance. This will likely allow any system in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico to eventually come north in 7-10 days. But it is too early to speculate on exact track and intensity given it is so far out and that we don’t even have a disturbance yet.
For now this is nothing to be concerned about, but is something those along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor in the coming days.
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