There is now a high chance (70 percent) of a tropical cyclone forming in the northwest Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico later this week. Exact track and intensity are still unknown, but model guidance has been coming into better agreement on increasing risk to the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area.
A cutoff low over the central/eastern U.S. is going to play a large role in determining track, and models are still struggling with its evolution/placement. Until this is sorted out there will continue to be some ‘windshield wiping’ by the models. Cutoff lows can be hard to forecast because they are cutoff from the jet stream.
Models have also trended higher with intensity overnight. Landfall will likely be sometime Thursday/Friday.
For future updates be sure to follow us on Facebook, Threads, and Instagram. You can also subscribe to our Substack newsletter:
