Tropical development is a possibility in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Looking at the latest model guidance The GFS is still predicting development, showing a tropical storm developing in the northeast Gulf by Thursday in its 00z run. Meanwhile,…
The Atlantic Basin is quiet in terms of tropical activity on this Independence Day. However, change could be in store next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico mid to…
Tropical Storm Barbara has formed in the Eastern Pacific. Barbara is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane. However, it is possible Barbara could become a major hurricane (category 3 or greater). There is no immediate threat to land. Interests…
Independence Day is Thursday. With outdoor activities (cookouts, fireworks displays etc.) planned, many people want to know if mother nature is going to “cooperate.” As of now, the answer to that question is yes, generally speaking. While some typical summertime…
There is a threat for severe weather for parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi this afternoon, overnight and into tomorrow morning. A complex of storms should develop across Oklahoma/north Texas and Arkansas late this afternoon, and advance south and east…
There is an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms in south-central/southeast Texas later today. Storms should develop near San Antonio, TX and Austin, TX by mid afternoon, shifting east-southeast/southeast toward the coast by late afternoon Eventual…
Invest 91L now has no chance to develop into a tropical cyclone, having moved inland of northeast Mexico/south Texas. While tropical development is no longer anticipated, heavy rain is still expected as 91L gets absorbed slow moving upper-level system, which…
The chance of Invest 91L developing is decreasing. Analysis Convection once again developed and increased in coverage overnight after waning yesterday afternoon However, there is still no evidence of a well-defined center of circulation. Model guidance None of the model…
Invest 91L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Analysis Looking at satellite imagery, convective (shower and thunderstorm) activity has increased this morning. However, it has been waning in intensity and coverage with the diurnal cycle for the past several…
Invest 91L is gradually organizing in the Bay of Campeche. Analysis Convective activity remains disorganized. However, vorticity has increased, with broad cyclonic turning evident. Wind shear also remains low in the vicinity of 91L per the most recent wind shear…