Michael is nearing hurricane status this morning and could become a major hurricane in the Gulf. 7 AM CDT advisory info: Location: 20.9°N 85.1°W Moving: N at 7 mph Min pressure: 982 mb Max sustained: 70 mph A Hurricane Watch is in effect from…
Tropical Depression 14 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Michael. 11:55 AM CDT special advisory info: Location: 19.2°N 86.9°W Moving: N at 5 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 40 mph A USAF hurricane hunter aircraft is en route, meaning we should get …
Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 is now a tropical depression (TD-14), and will become Tropical Storm Michael at some point today. 7 AM CDT advisory info: Location: 18.9°N 86.8°W Moving: N at 3 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 35 mph Analysis: TD-14 is…
Invest 91L has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 (PTC 14). The first official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for landfall on Wednesday near Fort Walton Beach, FL as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds.…
Analysis: Data from CIMSS shows that the multiple areas of vorticity are beginning to congeal, meaning 91L is gradually getting more organized. However, shear is still hampering development (as expected), blowing convection to the east and preventing the “center” from closing…
The area of low pressure that we have been tracking in the Caribbean for the past several days has been designated Invest 91L. Per 18z best track data, 91L was located just off the coast of Honduras. Analysis: Invest 91L,…
Tropical development in the northwest Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico is looking likely this weekend going into early next week. Analysis: The broad area of low pressure that formed yesterday over the southwest Caribbean Sea has moved little. The center…
Tropical development in the western Caribbean is looking more likely this weekend going into next week. Analysis: A broad area of low pressure has now formed in the SW Caribbean. The associated convective activity is sporadic and disorganized. Shear has…
Tropical development in the west Caribbean late this week going into next week remains a possibility. Analysis: A broad area of disturbed weather has already formed over the extreme SW Caribbean. However, shear is currently high across much of the Caribbean…
We mentioned back on the 17th that conditions in the Caribbean/Gulf would favor an increase in tropical activity. Long-range model guidance is now picking up on this. The ECMWF (euro), GFS, and UKMET are all in agreement on a broad…