It is looking increasingly likely that there will be early season tropical development in either the southwest Gulf or northwest Caribbean next week. Model guidance continues to be in agreement on development by mid/late next week. However, some differences remain.…
For the past several model cycles guidance has been generally consistent with the idea of some sort of tropical system developing in either the southwestern Gulf or northwest Caribbean in 7 – 10 days. Unlike the recent GFS ‘modelcane’ there…
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released their outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season this morning. Similar to other outlooks issued, such as the one issued by Colorado State University last month, NOAA is predicting…
The National Hurricane Center has tagged an area of interest in the north central Gulf of Mexico in their 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook. Note that this disturbance is completely unrelated to the spurious hurricane the GFS was showing…
While the GFS ‘modelcane’ is unsurprisingly not going to verify, some tropical moisture is going to make its way north this weekend into next week. High pressure nosing into the southeast from the Atlantic will help advect moisture into the…
Despite what some social media posts going around say, it is highly unlikely that a hurricane is going to form in the Gulf or Caribbean in the next 2 weeks. The GFS, which is just one of several computer models…
Tropical Storm Nicholas has formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. As of the 10 AM CDT advisory, Nicholas had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb, and was moving north-northwest at 13 mph.…
Invest 91L has developed into Tropical Storm Mindy over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. As of the 4 PM CDT advisory maximum sustained winds were 40 mph, the minimum central pressure was 1008 mb, and movement was northeast at 21…
Invest 91L has lifted north out of the Bay of Campeche and is now in the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Convective (shower/thunderstorm) activity increased today but has diminished this evening. However, upper-level winds (wind shear) are now marginally conducive for…
A surface trough (Invest 91L) currently located over Central America and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula will need to be monitored for tropical development in the western and central Gulf next week. Invest 91L is going to emerge into the…