A broad area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean Sea still has a chance, albeit low, for tropical development. Strong upper-level winds (wind shear) continue to hinder any organization. There is still a possibility that conditions could become more…
So far this fall, the eastern two-thirds of the country has been dominated by an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure, resulting in record warmth. This pattern has also resulted in drought development in the Southeast and much of Texas.…
A broad area of low pressure has formed in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Because of a 25 – 30 knot ribbon of shear, near-term development is unlikely As of the 00z model cycle, neither the ECMWF, UKMET or GFS were…
Scatterometer (satellite) data from earlier this afternoon indicate the Karen no longer has a closed low-level center of circulation. Additionally, convection has decreased both spatially and in organization. As a result, Karen is no longer a tropical cyclone. Karen’s remnants…
Karen still has not re-strengthened. As of 5 AM EDT/AST, Karen had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum pressure of 1004 mb, and was moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Forecast for Karen Considering Karen has yet to re-strengthen, the…
Despite decreasing wind shear, Karen has yet to strengthen; in fact, based on data from a recon aircraft, Karen has actually weakened (again). As of 5 PM EDT/AST, Karen had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum pressure of 1003…
Karen is stronger this evening. As of 8 PM EDT/AST, Karen had sustained winds of 45 mph, a minimum pressure of 1003 mb, and was moving northeast at 10 mph. Forecast for Karen Not much has changed with regard to…
There are currently three different active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic: Tropical Storm Jerry, Tropical Depression Karen, and Tropical Storm Lorenzo. Additionally, there is a new disturbance in the southern Gulf, near the Yucatan Peninsula, to watch. This update will…
Tropical Storm Karen (formerly Invest 99-L) has formed east of the Windward Islands. As of 5 AM EDT/AST, Karen had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum pressure of 1005 mb, and was moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Forecast for…
Jerry has started to weaken. As of 5 PM EDT/AST, Jerry had sustained winds of 80 mph, a minimum pressure of 991 mb, and was moving west-northwest at 18 mph. Forecast for Jerry Jerry is likely to continue to weaken…